The US non-farm payroll numbers for December 2023 revealed a job growth of about 216,000, surpassing the previous month’s figures and analyst estimates. With 52,000 new jobs, the government sector led the increase. Next came healthcare (38,000), leisure and hospitality (40,000), construction (17,000), and social assistance (21,000). However, warehousing and transportation experienced a decline of about 23,000 jobs.
In 2023, approximately 2.7 million jobs were added, marking the smallest increase since pre-pandemic levels in 2019. The monthly average was around 225,000 new jobs, with the government sector contributing 55,000 jobs monthly. The leisure and hospitality sector, while still recovering, saw an average of 56,000 new jobs per month, a decrease from the monthly average of 88,000 in 2022.
The tighter labour market could be a crucial factor influencing the US Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. Recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes indicate a shift towards a more dovish stance, with concerns about the potential impact of an “overly restrictive” monetary policy on long-term economic growth. After months of aggressive rate hikes to control inflation, the central bank is now open to the possibility of rate cuts, highlighting worries about slowing economic growth and the risk of recession.
While the Federal Reserve has hinted at a potential rate cut, the timing and extent remain uncertain. The central bank emphasises the need for convincing evidence of sustained declines in inflation before making any adjustments. In contrast, other major central banks, such as the European Central Bank (ECB), are cautious. With rising inflation in France and Germany, the ECB expresses reluctance to cut rates without substantial proof of inflation control. Similar to this, the Bank of England, under Governor Andrew Bailey, claims that it is “still too early” to consider rate cuts as of the end of 2023. The debate around interest rate decisions continues, reflecting the complex economic landscape and varying perspectives among central banks.
