GDP will grow 115% in Guyana over the next five years.
CNBC reported this week that an expert study shows Guyana’s economy will double by 2028 due to significant oil and export profits.
Between Venezuela and Suriname, the former British colony of 800,000 people is expected to increase “extremely fast” by 38% by the end of the year, according to current IMF predictions. The IMF said Guyana had the highest GDP growth last year at 62.3%.
Following the IMF projection, Fitch Solutions research unit BMI predicts “Guyana will see explosive growth this year.”
Andrew Trahan, BMI’s Latin America country risk head, predicts Guyana’s real GDP to climb 115% in five years. “The exact magnitude of the increase [is] dependent on how quickly additional oil production is brought online,” he told CNBC.
The discovery of new offshore discoveries in Guyana’s Stabroek Block is likely to boost oil production from 390,000 barrels per day this year to over a million by 2027, according to BMI.
The quick development of oil output after a succession of discoveries in recent years has powered Guyana’s robust growth, Trahan said, adding that higher oil production will boost net exports. He expects the country to be the fastest-growing economy in the world in 2023 and for at least two years.
According to the research, Guyana’s non-oil sector has grown due to transportation, housing, and human capital investments. According to the IMF, agriculture, mining, and quarrying were also doing well.
However, other experts caution that the South American nation has vulnerabilities that could slow progress.
Valerie Marcel, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told CNBC that Guyana has gone from one of the poorest Caribbean nations to one “showing exceptional growth.”
“Oil prices will fluctuate and stay low. Marcel stressed the importance of Guyana diversifying its economy.